CO2 abatement feasibility for blast furnace CCUS retrofits in BF-BOF steel plants in China

Abstract

As one of the energy and carbon intensive industries, the steel industry's low-carbon transition will contribute to the achievement of China's carbon neutrality goal. In this study, a comprehensive source-sink matching-trinomial tree real option evaluation model for China's steel industry was established by combining the database of carbon emissions from blast furnaces of BF-BOF process steel plants, and onshore and offshore CO2 storage potential and injection capacity rate database. By using this model, we investigate the CO2 abatement potential and investment decisions for blast furnace CCUS full-chain projects in China's BF-BOF process steel plants. The results show that a total of 420.07Mt/a of CO2 reductions can be achieved, attributed to 111 steel plants screened for source-sink matching. If no extra incentive policy was included, the current carbon market only supported immediate investment in 14 steel plant CCUS retrofit full-chain projects, which could achieve 36.47Mt/a of CO2 reductions, with a critical carbon price ranging from 6.96 to 202.98USD/t, averaged at 86.97 USD/t. Technological advances, rising carbon prices and government incentives would all contribute to the development of CCUS full-chain projects in the steel industry. The findings provide a strategy for the deployment of blast furnace CCUS retrofit in China's steel industry.