Abstract
Both pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and intestinal helminth infection (IHI) affect millions of individuals every year in China. However, the national-scale estimation of prevalence predictors and prevalence maps for these diseases, as well as co-endemic relative risk (RR) maps of both diseases’ prevalence are not well developed. There are co-endemic, high prevalence areas of both diseases, whose delimitation is essential for devising effective control strategies. Bayesian geostatistical logistic regression models including socio-economic, climatic, geographical and environmental predictors were fitted separately for active PTB and IHI based on data from the national surveys for PTB and major human parasitic diseases that were completed in 2010 and 2004, respectively. Prevalence maps and co-endemic RR maps were constructed for both diseases by means of Bayesian Kriging model and Bayesian shared component model capable of appraising the fraction of variance of spatial RRs shared by both diseases, and those specific for each one, under an assumption that there are unobserved covariates common to both diseases. Our results indicate that gross domestic product (GDP) per capita had a negative association, while rural regions, the arid and polar zones and elevation had positive association with active PTB prevalence; for the IHI prevalence, GDP per capita and distance to water bodies had a negative association, the equatorial and warm zones and the normalized difference vegetation index had a positive association. Moderate to high prevalence of active PTB and low prevalence of IHI were predicted in western regions, low to moderate prevalence of active PTB and low prevalence of IHI were predicted in north-central regions and the southeast coastal regions, and moderate to high prevalence of active PTB and high prevalence of IHI were predicted in the south-western regions. Thus, co-endemic areas of active PTB and IHI were located in the south-western regions of China, which might be determined by socio-economic factors, such as GDP per capita.
Highlights
Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and intestinal helminth infection (IHI) are still widespread in China
This is the first time the co-endemicity of PTB and IHI and their risk factors have been explored by means of a Bayesian geostatistical logistic regression model, a Bayesian Kriging model and a Bayesian shared component model, based on data from the national surveys
Our results indicate that active PTB and IHI prevalence are associated with economic and ecological indices, both individually and collectively, with different disease spectra in different ecosystems
Summary
Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) and intestinal helminth infection (IHI) are still widespread in China. Both diseases are associated with poverty and both seriously impact on people’s health. The latest national survey for major human parasitic diseases, conducted 2001–2004 reported a total of 26 species of helminth with an overall rate of 21.7%. Another study reported a possible link between IHI and dysfunction of the protective immune response to Bacillus Calmette Guérin (BCG) vaccine[7]. These findings may have important implications for the strategy to control PTB and IHI in China, which has a high burden of TB and parasitic infections
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