CMIP6 Models Underestimate Rainfall Trend on South Asian Monsoon Edge Tied to Middle East Warming

Abstract

AbstractIn recent decades, an increase in rainfall has been observed on the northwestern edge of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM; NWEISM). However, no studies have focused on model performances over NWEISM, which calls for an urgent evaluation of models. Here, we utilize historical simulations from 24 CMIP6 models to demonstrate that current models tend to underestimate the observed increasing rainfall over NWEISM, with only ∼30% of the observed intensity. The models broadly capture the spring Middle East land warming, which is the main driver of increased rainfall over NWEISM. Unfortunately, most models fail to reproduce the associated significant decrease in sea level pressure over the surrounding landmasses. This deficiency results in an ineffective trigger of cross‐equatorial southwesterly winds, impeding the accurate simulation of the poleward shift of the summer low‐level jet (LLJ). Consequently, it leads to a weaker link from the Middle East warming to rainfall enhancement over NWEISM.