Abstract
The evaluation of entrepreneurs’ uncertainty tolerance (UT) is more meaningful, e.g., predicting their behaviors, making psychological counseling strategies for them, etc. In fact, it is an uncertain problem that simultaneously contains randomness and fuzziness in evaluating entrepreneurs’ UT. Hence, it is difficult to solve it by traditional evaluation methods. This paper presents a cloud model-based comprehensive evaluation method for entrepreneurs’ UT which overcomes the inability of other methods to take into account randomness and fuzziness simultaneously. First, five UT levels are divided. Then, an evaluation index system which contains 14 secondary level indexes and four primary level indexes is constructed, and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method is used to obtain the weights for the secondary level indexes. Subsequently, the backward cloud generator (BCG) and virtual cloud model (CM) are used to obtain the CM of evaluation indexes, and cloud chart of evaluation results are generated by forward cloud generator (FCG). Finally, five core start-up founders of a high-tech company in China are chosen for a case study to illustrate our method. Compared with other traditional evaluation methods, our method has been verified to be a more competitive method. Its results are more visualized and low information lost.
Highlights
Uncertainty tolerance is a psychological term, it can be defined as a cognitive bias that affects how a person perceives, interprets, and responds to uncertain situations on a cognitive, emotional, and behavioral level [1]
7, the methods, evaluationindicating results calculated by cloud model (CM) aremethod fairly consistent with the other three traditional evaluation that the proposed is considerably reliable three traditional evaluation methods, indicating that the proposed method is considerably reliable and efficient
An evaluation index system of multi-level and multi-attribute is established for the uncertainty tolerance (UT) of entrepreneurs, and a novel method to evaluate the UT of entrepreneurs based on CM is proposed
Summary
Uncertainty tolerance is a psychological term, it can be defined as a cognitive bias that affects how a person perceives, interprets, and responds to uncertain situations on a cognitive, emotional, and behavioral level [1]. Individuals who are intolerant of uncertainty feel stressful and upset in uncertain situations, believe uncertainty is negative and should be avoided, and have difficulty functioning in uncertain situations [2]. Entrepreneurs, especially those in a high-tech field, face a highly uncertain decision-making situation, and uncertainty has more heavy influence on their mood, cognition, and behavior than in others. Entrepreneurs with a low uncertainty tolerance level have the following characteristics: (1) showing higher depression tendency emotionally; (2) more likely to overestimate the negative consequences of uncertainty; (3) more likely to take evasion and procrastination to avoid uncertainty [3]. Some institutions have investigated 242 entrepreneurs and found that depression accounts for 30% [4]
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