Abstract
Phylogenetically closely related species are often assumed to have similar responses to environmental conditions, but species-specific responses have also been described. These two scenarios may have different conservation implications. We tested these two hypotheses for Prionailurus cats (P. rubiginosus, P. bengalensis, P. viverrinus) in the Indian subcontinent and show its implications on species current protected area coverage and climatic suitability trends through time. We fitted ecological niche models with current environmental conditions and calculated niche overlap. In addition, we developed a model for the Jungle Cat Felis chaus to compare species responses and niche overlap estimates within Prionailurus with those for a related sympatric small cat species. Then we estimated the proportion of current suitable environment covered by protected area and projected climatic models from past (last interglacial) to future (2070; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) conditions to show implications on population management and conservation. The hypothesis of a similar response and niche overlap among closely related species is not supported. Protected area coverage was lowest for P. viverrinus (mean = 0.071, SD = 0.012) and highest for P. bengalensis (mean = 0.088, SD = 0.006). In addition, the proportion of the subcontinent with suitable climate varied through time and was species-specific. For P. bengalensis, climatic suitability shrunk since at least the mid-Holocene, a trend that can be intensified by human-induced climate warming. Concerning P. viverrinus, most predictions show stable future climatic suitability, but a few indicated potential loss. Climatic suitability for P. rubiginous was predicted to remain stable but the species exhibited a negative association with intensive agriculture. Similar responses to environmental change by phylogenetically closely related species should not be assumed and have implications on protected area coverage and natural trends of species climatic suitability over time. This should be taken into account during conservation and management actions.
Highlights
Closely related species are often assumed to have similar responses to environmental conditions, but species-specific responses have been described
We used macroscale comparative analyses to look at potential conservatism of niche properties within the genus Prionailurus, which is distributed through Asia and is currently represented by four species, three of them occurring in India (Rusty-spotted Cat P. rubiginosus, Leopard Cat P. bengalensis and Fishing Cat P. viverrinus)
Little is known about the ecology of P. rubiginosus, but preliminary data suggest it is primarily distributed through deciduous forests in India and its diet is believed to consist of r odents[38]
Summary
Closely related species are often assumed to have similar responses to environmental conditions, but species-specific responses have been described. Similar responses to environmental change by phylogenetically closely related species should not be assumed and have implications on protected area coverage and natural trends of species climatic suitability over time. This should be taken into account during conservation and management actions. We evaluate species ecological response and spatial niche conservatism in the presence of environmental change in three small cat species (Prionailurus spp.), including two closely related species, in south Asia and implications for protected area coverage. We go a step further than usual studies on species distribution changes focused on the present time and explore whether a potential lack of niche conservatism can lead to species-specific trends in climatic suitability and their implications for spatial conservation strategies
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