Abstract
Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) can develop into intense cyclonic systems accompanied by high-impact weather in areas far removed from the original TC. This study presents an analysis of multiseasonal global simulations representative of present-day and projected future climates using the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A), with high resolution (15-km grid) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. TCs are tracked as minima in sea level pressure (SLP) accompanied by a warm core, and TC tracks are extended into the extratropical phase based on local minima in SLP and use of a cyclone phase space method. The present-day simulations adequately represent observed ET characteristics such as frequency, location, and seasonal cycles throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The most significant changes in future ET events occur in the North Atlantic (NATL) basin. Here, a more favorable background environment, a shift toward stronger TC warm cores in the lower troposphere, and a significant poleward shift in TC location lead to a ~40% increase in the number of NATL ET events and a ~6% increase in the fraction of TCs undergoing ET. This equates to approximately 1–2 additional ET events per year in this region. In the future simulations, ET in the NATL occurs markedly farther north by ~4°–5°N, and the resultant extratropical cyclones are stronger by ~6 hPa. These changes hold potentially important implications for areas directly affected by ET events, such as eastern North America, as well as for regions indirectly impacted by downstream effects, including western Europe.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.