Climatological analysis of solar and wind energy in Germany using the Grosswetterlagen classification

Abstract

Solar and wind energy play an important role in current and future energy supply in Germany and Europe. The production of renewable energy highly depends on weather conditions resulting in an increasing impact of meteorological fluctuations on energy production. Here, climatological data of solar radiation and wind speed are used to simulate hourly capacity factors for solar and wind energy for Germany from 1995 to 2015. Using renewable energy production data for 2015 these data are converted into time series of generated electrical power. Events with very low energy production, i.e., shortfall events, have been identified and related to large-scale weather regimes over Europe.In Germany, on average about twice as much electrical energy is generated from wind compared to solar radiation; in addition there is a distinct annual cycle with an equal share of generated energy during summer and a 70/30% wind/solar share in winter. There is an unambiguous dependency of wind and solar energy production on weather regimes. Shortfall events in Germany only occur in winter, often associated with a high pressure system over Central Europe. During this weather regime, the renewable energy potential in Northern and Southeastern Europe is above average, possibly allowing to balance shortfall events in Germany.