Climatic suitability of spring maize planted in the "sickle bend" area of China and regulation suggestion

Abstract

The "sickle bend" area is a typical dry farming and excellent livestock development area, with fragile ecological environment. It includes 13 provinces (autonomous regions) in the north and the southwest of China. The climate suitability and the climatic potential productivity of spring maize from 1981 to 2010 in this area were quantitatively assessed. The daily data from 650 meteorological stations and grid data (1 km×1 km) in the "sickle bend" area from 1981 to 2010, and recognized indicators of agricultural meteorology were used in this study. The agro-ecological zoning mo-del (AEZ) which was currently very popular in estimating crop climatic potential productivity internationally was also applied, as well as land use classification information monitoring from satellite remote sensing. Then, based on biological characteristics of spring maize and agricultural climate resources, scientific countermeasures on reasonably adjusting agricultural production structure in subsuitable and unsuitable areas were proposed. The results showed that: 1) the climatic potential productivity of spring maize in the northern growing areas showed the "big-medium-smaller-small" distribution pattern from the east to the west from 1981 to 2010. However, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize in the southern growing areas had no significant distribution law, fluctuating between "smaller" and " medium " in general. 2) It presented the "most suitable-suitable-subsuitable-unsuitable" distribution pattern from the southeast to the northwest in the northern maize growing region of the "sickle bend" area on the whole from 1981 to 2010. In contrast, the southern planting area showed the "unsuitable-subsuitable-suitable-most suitable" distribution pattern from the southeast to the northwest. The most suitable and suitable planting areas of spring maize were mainly located in the most areas of Northeast China and North China, and the southeastern areas of Northwest China. The subsuitable or unsuitable regions mainly included Inner Mongolia, northern Xinjiang, western Gansu and Guangxi. 3) The most suitable planting area of spring maize was the largest (47%), followed by subsuitable area (23%), unsuitable area (17%) and suitable area (13%). 4) According to the analysis of climatic conditions, we proposed to mainly decrease the spring maize planting in the subsuitable and unsuitable areas. These subsuitable and unsuitable regions were low climatic potential productivity areas, including the arid windstorm region of Northwest, the cold area of Northeast, agro-pastoral area and the rocky desertification region of Southwest.