Abstract
Evaluating climatic suitability of crop cultivation lays a foundation for agriculture coping with climate change scientifically. Herein, we analyse changes in the climatically suitable distribution of summer maize cultivation in China at 1.5 °C (GW1.5) and 2.0 °C (GW2.0) global warming in the future according to the temperature control targets set by the Paris Agreement. Compared with the reference period (1971–2000), the summer maize cultivation climatically suitable region (CSR) in China mainly shifts eastwards, and its acreage significantly decreases at both GW1.5 and GW2.0. Despite no dramatic changes in the CSR spatial pattern, there are considerable decreases in the acreages of optimum and suitable regions (the core of the main producing region), indicating that half-a-degree more global warming is unfavourable for summer maize production in China’s main producing region. When the global warming threshold increases from GW1.5 to GW2.0, the centres-of-gravity of optimum areas shift northeastward under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the centres-of-gravity of both suitable and less suitable areas shift northwestward, though the northward trend is more prominent for the less suitable areas, and the centre-of-gravity of unsuitable areas shifts southeastward. Generally, half-a-degree more global warming drives the cultivable areas of summer maize to shift northward in China, while the west region shows a certain potential for expansion of summer maize cultivation.
Highlights
It is an indisputable fact that the world is growing warmer
We obtained the relationship between distribution of summer maize climatically suitable region (CSR) and climate through training of the Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method according to the geographical distribution information of the 108 agricultural meteorological observation stations (AMOS), in combination with the environmental variable layers formed by the 30-year averages of seven dominant climatic factors during 1971–2000
The CSR of summer maize cultivation was simulated at GW1.5 and GW2.0 using the dominant climatic factors under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios at GW1.5 and GW2.0
Summary
It is an indisputable fact that the world is growing warmer. The adverse impacts of global climate change on food production are higher than the positive impacts [1]. According to the latest report of Nature [3], during 1964–2007, extreme weather disasters caused large-scale yield (maize, rice and wheat) reductions in the world, with an increased trend in the yield losses; for example, cereal yields were reduced 9%–10% by drought and extreme high-temperatures in different countries. To reduce this risk, nearly 200 parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed in concert to approve the Paris Agreement, which proposed. The results provide reference data for developing countermeasures to aid adaptation of summer maize to climate change
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