Dynamics of decadal changes in the distribution of double-cropping rice cultivation in China

Abstract

Quantitative description of changes in the distribution of paddy rice cultivation in response to recent climate change provides a reference for rice cultivation patterns and formulation of countermeasures to cope with future climate change in China. This study analyzes the dynamics of decadal changes in distribution of double-cropping rice in China during 1961–2010 in relation to climate change based on the maximum entropy method. Decadal changes in the double-cropping rice cultivation area and climatic suitability in China were apparent. The total area of climatically suitable regions was highest in the 1960s, and subsequently showed an increasing trend at first and then a decreasing trend from the 1970s to 2000s. However, the low climatic suitability area decreased, which implied that the moderate and high climatic suitability areas increased. Among the latter, the high climatic suitability area showed the highest increase in extent to 4.4 times that of the 1990s and four times that of the 1960s. The areas of double-cropping rice cultivation most sensitive to climate change are mainly located in central Jiangsu, central Anhui, the eastern Sichuan Basin, southern Henan and central Guizhou. Transformation of areas between low and moderate climatic suitability was observed in northern Zhejiang, southern Anhui and Hubei, and northern Guangxi. Transformation of areas between moderate and high climatic suitability was observed in central Jiangxi and Leizhou Peninsula. The northern boundary of double-cropping rice cultivation in China shifted southwards and contracted eastwards in the 1970s, and extended northwards in the 1980s. However, the northern boundary did not shift northwards in response to climate warming in the 2000s.