Climatic Suitability and Distribution Overlap of Sawflies (Hymenoptera: Diprionidae) and Threatened Populations of Pinaceae

Abstract

Ecological Niche Models (ENM) are tools used to predict suitability, based on climatic variables selected and occurrence data of the target species, and characterize the environmental space. Sawflies (Hymenoptera: Diprionidae) are one of the main factors threatening forest health in Mexico, with cyclical population outbreaks and a wide range of hosts. In the present paper, we calculate the climatic niche in Mexico of three diprionids, Neodiprion abietis (Harris), N. omosus Smith, and Zadiprion rohweri (Middleton); the first and the latter with recent records in Mexico, and N. omosus with presence in Mexico and Guatemala; contrasting them against the distribution records of host species in the country. The climatic suitability of N. abietis was high in the Sierra Madre Occidental where its hosts, Pinus ponderosa, P. strobiformis, and P. menziesii are distributed. For N. omosus, the environmental suitability was projected towards the Southern Altiplano, where it coincides with a small presence of its hosts P. leiophylla and P. ayacahuite; however, it was possible to calculate its coincidence with more hosts in other biogeographic provinces. Pinaceae species considered under threat, Abies concolor, P. monophylla, and P. strobiformis, have populations within the environmental suitability of the sawflies.