Regional variation in responses of a vulnerable bird species to land‐use and climate change

Abstract

AbstractClimate and land‐use changes are expected to negatively affect many species and ecological processes, leading to biodiversity loss. However, some species can adapt to these changes. Wide‐ranging species are expected to be less impacted by such changes, but they can occur in different domains with contrasting environmental conditions, resulting in different conservation statuses along their range. To understand whether a species will overall benefit or lose with global change, we evaluated the responses of a wide‐ranging but a vulnerable bird (Crax fasciolata) to separate and combined effects of climate and land‐use changes under different environmental policies in Brazil. Using ecological niche modeling and a land‐use model within the Brazilian political context, we quantified climatic, habitat, and environmental suitability for Crax fasciolata under historical (2000) and future (2050) scenarios. Our findings showed that environmental suitability can increase for Crax fasciolata in Brazil in future, but these effects vary according to the domain and the specific future scenario considered. Climatically suitable areas will increase in all scenarios, and those environmental scenarios that include better habitat conditions will provide more environmentally suitable areas for Crax fasciolata. However, this increase comes from newly suitable areas in the Atlantic Forest and the Amazon, while the Pantanal, the Caatinga, and the Cerrado will lose environmental suitability due to native vegetation loss. Despite the availability of these new areas, reduced landscape permeability may hinder Crax fasciolata from reaching them. This reinforces the urgent call for public policies for native vegetation protection, reforestation, and effective deforestation control.Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material