Climatic- and anthropogenic-induced land cover change around Norilsk, Russia

Abstract

ABSTRACTIncreasing atmospheric temperatures over the last 30 years has prompted land cover change in sensitive Arctic environments and exacerbated change in large urban-industrial centers on permafrost. Norilsk, Russia, the largest city built on permafrost north of the Arctic Circle, has a long history of development and industrial activity providing an opportunity to evaluate the climatic- and anthropogenic-induced land cover change. Land cover changes in three areas representative of natural and anthropogenic landscapes in the vicinity of Norilsk were examined over a 30 year period of documented warming focusing on three time periods corresponding to distinct socio-economic conditions: the mid- to late 1980s, the early 2000s, and the 2010s. Temperature increases resulted in consistent and significant greening and a slight increase in surface water extent in the nearby area unaffected by human activities. The areas modified by human activities within the city and downwind from local pollution sources experienced an expansion of barren ground due primarily to sulfur-dioxide-laden pollution. Subsequent decreases in emissions in this area correspond with marginal revegetation, or a likely process of secondary succession with the expansion of tall shrubs. These findings show that both climatic warming and industrial development exert significant influence on Arctic land covers.