Abstract
There is a burgeoning international literature on hydro-climatic trend detection, motivated by the need to detect and interpret any emerging changes in river flows associated with anthropogenic climate change. The UK has a particularly strong evidence base in this area thanks to a well-developed monitoring programme and a wealth of studies published over the last 20 years. This paper reviews this research, with a view to assessing the evidence for climate change influences on UK river flow, including floods and droughts. This assessment is of international relevance given the scale of the research effort in the UK, a densely monitored and data-rich environment, but one with significant human disturbances to river flow regimes, as in many parts of the world. The review finds that changes can be detected in river flow regimes, some of which agree with future change projections, while others are in apparent contradiction. Observed changes generally cannot be attributed to climate change, largely due to the fact that river flow records are limited in length and the identification of short-term trends is confounded by natural variability. A UK ‘Benchmark’ network of near-natural catchments is an internationally significant example of an initiative to enable climate variability to be discerned from direct human disturbances (e.g. abstractions, dam construction). Generally, however, the problem of attribution has been tackled rather indirectly in the UK, as elsewhere, and more efforts are required to attribute change in a more rigorous manner.
Highlights
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle (Huntington, 2006), leading to modified river flow regimes in many parts of the world
River flows represent the integrated response of all hydrometeorological processes acting upon a catchment, and it is through altered river flow regimes that climate change could have some of the most profound impacts on society, due to increases in flood risk, decreases in water availability and degradation of water quality and ecosystem services
The anticipated influence of climate change on the hydrological cycle has motivated a considerable research effort focused on hydro-climatic change in the UK
Summary
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle (Huntington, 2006), leading to modified river flow regimes in many parts of the world. River flows represent the integrated response of all hydrometeorological processes acting upon a catchment, and it is through altered river flow regimes that climate change could have some of the most profound impacts on society, due to increases in flood risk, decreases in water availability and degradation of water quality and ecosystem services. The aim of this paper is to provide a state-ofthe-art assessment of the evidence for long-term river flow changes in the UK, focusing on climate-driven changes in flow, as opposed to changes caused by direct human disturbances such as water management practices (e.g. abstraction, effluent returns, impoundments), land use or land management. Attribution of observed trends is discussed – posing the question of whether observed changes are consistent with currently favoured projections under anthropogenic warming
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