Abstract
Historical and future projected changes in climatic patterns over the largest irrigated basin in the world, the Indus River Basin (IRB), threaten agricultural production and food security in Pakistan, in particular for vulnerable farming communities. To build a more detailed understanding of the impacts of climate change on agriculture s in the IRB, the present study analyzes (1) observed trends in average temperature, precipitation and related extreme indicators, as well as seasonal shifts over a recent historical period (1997–2016); and (2) statistically downscaled future projections (up to 2100) from a set of climate models in conjunction with crop-specific information for the four main crops of the IRB: wheat, cotton, rice and sugarcane. Key findings show an increasing trend of about over 0.1 °C/year in observed minimum temperature across the study area over the historical period, but no significant trend in maximum temperature. Historical precipitation shows a positive annual increase driven mainly by changes in August and September. Future projections highlight continued warming resulting in critical heat thresholds for the four crops analyzed being increasingly exceeded into the future, in particular in the Kharif season. Concurrently, inter-annual rainfall variability is projected to increase up to 10–20% by the end of the 21st century, augmenting uncertainty of water availability in the basin. These findings provide insight into the nature of recent climatic shifts in the IRB and emphasize the importance of using climate impact assessments to develop targeted investments and efficient adaptation measures to ensure resilience of agriculture in Pakistan into the future.
Highlights
The agricultural sector in Pakistan accounts for 18.5% of the Gross Domestic Product and employs 38.5% of the workforce nationally
We focus on the two main provinces within the Indus River Basin (IRB), Punjab and Sindh—which account for over 90% of the country’s food production and 75% of the country’s export revenues [1]—and analyze four key crops: wheat, cotton, rice and sugarcane
The present study presents results over the entire year as well as disaggregated by the two cropping seasons in the IRB, Kharif season (May–October) and Rabi season (November–April)
Summary
The agricultural sector in Pakistan accounts for 18.5% of the Gross Domestic Product and employs 38.5% of the workforce nationally. The Indus River Basin (IRB) is the primary agricultural region, contributing to more than 90% of the country’s food production [1]. Changes in climate pose a serious threat to Pakistan’s food security and the sustainability of future agricultural production [7,8,9]. The IRB hosts the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system [10] that sustains approximately 90% of agricultural production in the country [11], which in turn puts significant pressure on water resources. One of the main factors driving the recent decline in crop productivity along the IRB is the more frequent extreme weather events and shifts in seasonal rainfall [12]
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