Climate Sensitivity to Changes in Ocean Heat Transport

Abstract

Using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean, the effects of ocean heat transport (OHT) on climate are studied by prescribing OHT from 0 to 2 times the present-day values. In agreement with previous studies, an increase in OHT from zero to present-day conditions warms the climate by decreasing the albedo due to reduced sea ice extent and marine stratus cloud cover and by increasing the greenhouse effect through a moistening of the atmosphere. However, when the OHT is further increased, the solution becomes highly dependent on a positive radiative feedback between tropical low clouds and sea surface temperature. The strength of the low cloud–SST feedback combined with the model design may produce solutions that are globally colder than in the control run, mainly due to an unrealistically strong equatorial cooling. Excluding those cases, results indicate that the climate warms only if the OHT increase does not exceed more than 10% of the present-day value in the case of a strong cloud–SST feedback and more than 25% when this feedback is weak. Larger OHT increases lead to a cold state where low clouds cover most of the deep tropics, increasing the tropical albedo and drying the atmosphere. This suggests that the present-day climate is close to a state where the OHT maximizes its warming effects on climate and raises doubts about the possibility that greater OHT in the past may have induced significantly warmer climates than that of today.