Climate rather than economic variables might have caused increase in US homicide but not suicide rates during the Great Depression

Abstract

BackgroundIt is widely believed that during the Great Depression (1929–1933) there was a rise in suicidal rates which was causally related to the increase in unemployment. There are no studies on the effect the Great Depression had on homicidal rates MethodsThe data concerning suicide, homicide, economic and climatic variables for the years 1900–1940 for the whole of the US were gathered from the US Center for Disease Control, the Maddison Project, the National Bureau of Economic Research and the National Climatic Data Center. Time Series Analysis was performed. ResultsThe results are inconclusive on the role of economic factors but preclude any role of climate on suicidal rates during the years 1900–1940 in the US. Suicidal rates might have a 24-years periodicity, however much longer time series are needed to confirm this. On the contrary they strongly suggest an effect of higher temperatures on homicidal rates after 1922. ConclusionsThe results of the current study suggest a direct and clear effect of climate (higher temperatures) on the increasing homicidal rates in the US after 1922 but failed to establish a causal relationship between suicide rates and economic or climate variables. These should be considered together with increasing concerns on the possible effect of climate change on mental health