Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development

James E Neumann,Margaret Black,Paul Chinowsky,Jacob Helman,Kenneth Strzepek,Jeremy Martinich,Charles Fant

doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03179-w

Abstract

Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the USA. Using models that analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation, this paper estimates impacts to railroad, roads, and coastal properties under three infrastructure management response scenarios: No Adaptation; Reactive Adaptation, and Proactive Adaptation. Comparing damages under each of these potential responses provides strong support for facilitating effective adaptation in these three sectors. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and without adaptation, overall costs are projected to range in the $100s of billions annually by the end of this century. The first (reactive) tier of adaptation action, however, reduces costs by a factor of 10, and the second (proactive) tier reduces total costs across all three sectors to the low $10s of billions annually. For the rail and road sectors, estimated costs for Reactive and Proactive Adaptation scenarios capture a broader share of potential impacts, including selected indirect costs to rail and road users, and so are consistently about a factor of 2 higher than prior estimates. The results highlight the importance of considering climate risks in infrastructure planning and management.

Highlights

Climate change is affecting infrastructure systems across the USA in far-reaching ways, and impacts are projected to worsen over time in many regions
Climatic Change precipitation events are damaging roadways and threatening the integrity of the rail system, as sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge (SS) erode our coastline and damage property and infrastructure, during heavy storms which are occurring with greater frequency and intensity (US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) 2017; Jacobs et al 2018a; U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2017)
At the national (CONUS) level, these results differ from those presented for comparable scenarios in prior work that uses these modeling tools, as described in USEPA (2017, see Table 29.2 on page 214), but in ways that directly reflect the methodological improvements outlined above to broaden the scope of estimated impacts and to refine the climate scenario inputs

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is affecting infrastructure systems across the USA in far-reaching ways, and impacts are projected to worsen over time in many regions. Extreme temperature and Climatic Change precipitation events are damaging roadways and threatening the integrity of the rail system, as sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge (SS) erode our coastline and damage property and infrastructure, during heavy storms which are occurring with greater frequency and intensity (US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) 2017; Jacobs et al 2018a; U.S EPA 2017) These major infrastructure systems are critical to the nation’s economy, security, and culture, as they facilitate commerce, transportation, and societal well-being. Coastal infrastructure is exceptionally vulnerable, with existing problems such as shoreline erosion, coastal flooding, and water pollution expected to worsen with climate change (Fleming et al 2018) To address these challenges, engineers and infrastructure planners suggest a need to adapt the way we operate, maintain, upgrade, and expand the nation’s infrastructure assets (ASCE 2018; U.S DOT 2015)

Methods

Results

Conclusion