Abstract
Assessing landscape patterns in climate vulnerability, as well as resilience and resistance to drought, disturbance, and invasive species, requires appropriate metrics of relevant environmental conditions. In dryland systems of western North America, soil temperature andmoisture regimes have been widely utilized as an indicator of resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasive plant species by providing integrative indicators of long-term site aridity, which relates to ecosystem recovery potential and climatic suitability to invaders. However, the impact of climate change on these regimes, and the suitability of the indicator for estimating resistance and resilience in the context of climate change have not been assessed. Here we utilized a daily time-step, process-based, ecosystem water balance model to characterize current and future patterns in soil temperature and moisture conditions in dryland areas of western North America, and evaluate the impact of these changes on estimation of resilience and resistance. Soil temperature increases in the twenty-first century are substantial, relatively uniform geographically, and robust across climate models. Higher temperatures will expand the areas of mesic and thermic soil temperature regimes while decreasing the area of cryic and frigid temperature conditions. Projections for future precipitation are more variable both geographically and among climate models. Nevertheless, future soil moisture conditions are relatively consistent across climate models for much of the region. Projections of drier soils are expected in most of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as the central and southern U.S. Great Plains. By contrast, areas with projections of increasing soil moisture include northeastern Montana, southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, and many areas dominated by big sagebrush, particularly the Central and Northern Basin and Range and the Wyoming Basin ecoregions. In addition, many areas dominated by big sagebrush are expected to experience pronounced shifts toward cool season moisture, which will create more area with xeric moisture conditions and less area with ustic conditions. In addition to indicating widespread geographic shifts in the distribution of soil temperature andmoisture regimes, our results suggest opportunities for enhancing the integration of these conditions into a quantitative framework for assessing climate change impacts on dryland ecosystem resilience and resistance that is responsive to long-term projections.
Highlights
Global change, altered disturbance regimes, biological invasions, and long-term climatic shifts, represent growing challenges for policy makers, and natural resource managers working to sustain ecosystem services (Glick et al, 2010)
The need for insights about geographic patterns of climate vulnerability is especially pronounced in dryland regions, where degradation has been widespread and many ecosystems are heavily dependent on moisture that is acquired in the soil profile (Huang et al, 2017)
Quantitative evaluation of climate vulnerability and ecological resilience to global change at broad spatial scales requires widely available information about relevant environmental conditions that influence how ecosystems respond to stressors like drought, invasive species, and disturbance (Chambers et al, 2019a)
Summary
Altered disturbance regimes, biological invasions, and long-term climatic shifts, represent growing challenges for policy makers, and natural resource managers working to sustain ecosystem services (Glick et al, 2010). Decision makers need a quantitative, systematic way to recognize how locations differ in their expected response to changes in both climate and disturbances This information would enable efficient prioritization and resource allocation by identifying areas where management activities can increase the adaptive capacity of ecosystems and minimize adverse impacts. Edaphic properties, and vegetation feedbacks interact to influence moisture availability, dryland ecosystem vulnerability to climate change and ecological resilience to disturbance are highly heterogeneous in both space and time. This heterogeneity represents a substantial challenge to developing geographically appropriate management strategies that prevent degradation and promote recovery from disturbance
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