Climate data verification for assessing climate change in Almaty region of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Abstract

Climatic factors are changing and thereby having a tremendous impact on the environment. Monitoring of changes in climatic factors is one of the fundamental actions to prevent climate disasters, thereby updating the reliability and accessibility of climate indicators. The Almaty region under study is located in the south-east of Kazakhstan, and has a complex terrain and different absolute elevation above the sea level. These aggregates are one of the main prerequisites for different climatic indicators in the studied region. In this work, the analysis of ground-based metereological stations and open climate data (WorldClim and CHIRPS) was carried out by integrating geospatial information into the GIS environment, hybrid models of climate indicators for the territory of the Almaty region were also developed. The hybrid models were verified to detect deviations from the mean value using MAD, MSE, RMSE, MAPE. The data presented in the study were obtained in the period from 1950 to 2000 for ground-based metereological stations, from 1961 to 2018 for WorldClim data, from 1981 to 2021 for CHIRPS climate indicators. Statistical climatic indicators were processed by determining arithmetic averages. According to the location of metereological stations, IDW interpolation maps were compiled. Data from open climate databases (WorldClim and CHIRPS) were averaged and indicators were determined over a period of 10 years. The results of errors revealed large differences in indicators in mountainous regions, moderate differences in climatic indicators were observed in the plains, and changes in indicators were studied in the context of natural and high-elevation zones.According to the results of the study, vulnerable areas in nature management were identified in the context of an increase in air temperature and a decrease in precipitation. The authors proposed recommendations on adaptation to climate change and mitigation of their consequences.