Climate Connectivity of European Forests for Species Range Shifts

Sean Cullen,Qiyao Han,Greg Keeffe

doi:10.3390/f12070940

Abstract

Forest connectivity is important for the range shifts and long-term persistence of forest-dependent species, especially in the context of climate change. This study assessed the climate connectivity of European forests for species to track suitable climate conditions as the climate warms. Here, climate connectivity was calculated as the temperature difference between each forest patch and the coolest patch that can be reached along temperature gradients. We found that, overall, about 36% of the total forested area in Europe has achieved successful climate connectivity under the moderate emission scenario (SSP245), whereby species range shifts could circumvent the impact of climate warming. The percentage is much lower under the highest emission scenario (SSP585), which is only 12%. To identify forest areas of high importance for climate connectivity, we further evaluated the potential of each forest patch to serve as a stepping stone for species range shifts. Our results showed that about 94% of the European forested area is expected to experience species range shifts. Our study identified sites of high conservation value for improving and sustaining forest connectivity to facilitate climate-driven range shifts and thus could provide information for climate-smart management of European forests.

Highlights

Forest connectivity is critical for the long-term persistence and range shifts of forestdependent species [1,2,3]
As our study considered climate change the main driver of species range shifts, the forested cells were partitioned into forest patches based on their temperatures
To identify forest areas of importance for climate connectivity, we further evaluated the potential of each forest patch to serve as a stepping stone for species range shifts along temperature gradients

Summary

Introduction

Forest connectivity is critical for the long-term persistence and range shifts of forestdependent species [1,2,3]. Improving climate connectivity is both a necessary action and a viable solution to reduce the likelihood of local extinctions and biodiversity loss [14,15] This is urgent considering the rapid rate of climate change, which is expected to cause large shifts in the distributions of species in European forests. Recent climate change has driven large shifts in the geographical ranges of species across Europe, especially for those inhabiting forested areas. Another study by Araujo et al [19] suggested that, by the end of this century, more than half of the assessed plant and terrestrial vertebrate species will lose suitable climatic conditions in European protected areas Given these circumstances, habitat-based conservation strategies are unable to support the long-term persistence of species in European forests under climate change [20,21,22]. Our results identified forest areas of high importance for climate-driven range shifts and could provide information for climate-smart management of European forests

Identify Forest Patches

Identify Stepping Stones

Results

Discussions