Abstract
There will be winners and losers as climate change alters the habitats of polar organisms. For an Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony on Beaufort Island (Beaufort), part of a cluster of colonies in the southern Ross Sea, we report a recent population increase in response to increased nesting habitat as glaciers have receded. Emigration rates of birds banded as chicks on Beaufort to colonies on nearby Ross Island decreased after 2005 as available habitat on Beaufort increased, leading to altered dynamics of the metapopulation. Using aerial photography beginning in 1958 and modern satellite imagery, we measured change in area of available nesting habitat and population size of the Beaufort colony. Population size varied with available habitat, and both increased rapidly since the 1990s. In accord with glacial retreat, summer temperatures at nearby McMurdo Station increased by ∼0.50°C per decade since the mid-1980s. Although the Ross Sea is likely to be the last ocean with an intact ecosystem, the recent retreat of ice fields at Beaufort that resulted in increased breeding habitat exemplifies a process that has been underway in the Ross Sea during the entire Holocene. Furthermore, our results are in line with predictions that major ice shelves and glaciers will retreat rapidly elsewhere in the Antarctic, potentially leading to increased breeding habitat for Adélie penguins. Results further indicated that satellite imagery may be used to estimate large changes in Adélie penguin populations, facilitating our understanding of metapopulation dynamics and environmental factors that influence regional populations.
Highlights
The adage is that global climate change will identify both winners and losers as the habitats of polar organisms are altered [1]
Evidence suggesting that Adelie penguins on Beaufort were ‘‘climate change winners’’ was both the colony expansion, and increases in nesting density and summer temperatures during the
Did the glacier field to the north of the main colony retreat by hundreds of meters allowing for colony expansion, but the snow patches within the colony decreased and eventually vanished. Both of these small-scale and large-scale factors driven, at least in part, by increasing temperatures played a role in the increase of the Adelie penguin nesting habitat and colony size
Summary
The adage is that global climate change will identify both winners and losers as the habitats of polar organisms are altered [1]. In areas of the Antarctic where sea ice is declining (i.e., the Peninsula), the food web has been in flux, as noted by recent studies [2,3]. On the opposite side of the continent, the Ross Sea (located approximately 3,500 km south of New Zealand), is a unique body of water that has been relatively untouched by human activities, and is likely to provide the last sea-ice ecosystem during the present period of climate change [7]. In the Ross Sea region, changing weather patterns have brought slightly warmer temperatures and stronger winds, with corresponding increases in sea ice extent and persistence [11,12,13] and more predictable coastal polynyas [9,11,14]
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