Climate Change Vulnerability in Agriculture Sector: An Assessment and Mapping at Divisional Secretariat Level in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Climate change vulnerability assessment is a technique used to identify vulnerable areas for adaptation planning. This study focuses on developing a conceptual framework to assess and map the vulnerability of the agriculture sector in Sri Lanka to climate change at Divisional Secretariat (DS), an administrative level. Vulnerability indices were formulated based on the definition of vulnerability by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Data were collected from secondary sources and aggregated using a composite index. The index was further expanded by two methods to include the impacts of neighbouring DS divisions, considering the mean vulnerability index (VI) of neighbours and maximum VI among neighbours. A two-third was taken as the contribution from the own DS while one-third was accounted for the surrounding DS divisions for the final vulnerability index. The study identified a considerable spatial variability in vulnerability. Agriculture sector in Northern and Eastern, Northwestern parts of the country and Southwestern part of the wet zone are the most vulnerable to drought. About 50% of area in the wet zone and Northern and Eastern coasts were identified as the most vulnerable to floods while Central highlands are vulnerable to landslides. Vulnerability of agriculture for cyclones has spread throughout the dry zone except few areas. Neighbourhood analysis using the mean vulnerability index (VI) of neighbours (N) shows that the agriculture sector is highly vulnerable to droughts (D), floods (F), landslides (L), cyclones (C) in the DS divisions of Galgamauwa (VIDNAvg is1), Manmunai West (VIFNAvg is 0.84), Akurana (VILNAvg is 0.85), Kuchchaveli (VICNAvg is 0.83), respectively, and to all types of disaster in Manmunai West (VINAvg is 0.62) DS division. This study indicates that the characteristics of the neighbours are a vital factor in determining the vulnerability status of an area of interest. Since vulnerability assessments are useful in policy formulations and launching development projects, these assessments should include the influence of neighbours.