Abstract
Trend and climate change were studied in annual rainfall data for the period of 62 years (1949-2010) of Sagar and 65 years (1945-2010) of Damoh districts of Bundelkhand region of central India. The analysis of weekly rainfall probability was also carried out at both the locations for field operations and crop planning in rainfed agricultural system for improving the farmer’s livelihood. Mean annual rainfall was 1233.8 mm with 32.6% variability for Sagar and 1225.1 mm with 30.3% variability for Damoh region. Sagar and Damoh region exhibited significant decreasing trend in the total amount of annual rainfall in the last 15 years (1996 to 2010). Also, both locations showed significant long-term decreasing trend in annual rainfall. Climate of both the regions have changed as in the recent 15 years annual rainfall had decreased by 156.4 and 310.7 mm at Sagar and Damoh from their long period average (LPA), respectively. The Initial and conditional rainfall probability analysis at Damoh reinforced that Initial probabilities {P (W)} of getting 10 mm rainfall per week was 76% during 25th (18-24 June) SMW. Thus, the seed bed preparation could be initiated during this week. Initial as well as conditional probability of wet week followed by wet week {P(W/W} of getting 20 mm rainfall was more than 80% during 27th SMW (2-7 July) in Sagar district. Therefore, this week is most suitable for sowing operation in this district.
Highlights
Climate from geological epoch has been changing with time and it is reasonable to assume that it will change.Recently, the severe drought conditions have disrupted human societies in Bundelkhand region of central India and got the attention of India on reality of climate variability and its significance
The mean annual rainfalls for both the locations are more than 1200 mm with a standard deviation (SD) of more than 371 mm and coefficient of variation (CV) of more than 30.3%
The coefficient of variation indicates that the rainfall was highly variable at these two locations
Summary
Climate from geological epoch has been changing with time and it is reasonable to assume that it will change.Recently, the severe drought conditions have disrupted human societies in Bundelkhand region of central India and got the attention of India on reality of climate variability and its significance. Annual rainfall along with a five-year moving average showed that trend was alternatively increasing and decreasing in nature consisting of a period of five or six years at Pusa, Bihar, India [17]. It showed long-term increasing trend with a rate of 1.98 mm per year. In another districts of Bihar i.e., Madhepura, a significant long-term increasing trend was noticed in annual rainfall series with a rate of 13.8 mm/year [18] Both the locations under study are categorized as rainfed regions with low, erratic and uncertain rainfall pattern with frequent dry spells during the monsoon season. Taking into account these climatic and probability factor, the current study was conducted at two rainfed districts of Bundelkhand region namely Sagar and Damoh for interlinking the rainfall probability and intensity factor with the crop planning pattern in the region
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