Trends in seasonal and annual rainfall and rainy days in Kashmir Valley in the last century

Abstract

The study has analysed seasonal and annual rainfall and rainy days at five stations namely Srinagar, Kulgam, Handwara, Qazigund and Kukarnag to decipher rainfall trends over the Kashmir Valley. Rainfall data collected by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) were used. Due to the varying length of the available data, analysis was performed for two common periods: 1903–1982 (80 years) at three stations and 1962–2002 (41 years) at three stations. The 102 years of data at Srinagar were also analysed to examine the trends for last century. Time series of annual and seasonal rainfall/rainy days were examined for trends by analysis of anomalies and application of statistical tests. During the period 1903–1982, Srinagar, Kulgam and Handwara stations experienced a decreasing trend in annual rainfall; the maximum decrease was found for Kulgam (−20.16% of mean/100 years) and minimum for Srinagar (−2.45% of mean/100 years). All three stations showed a decreasing trend in monsoon and winter rainfall and an increasing trend in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasonal rainfall. The decreasing trend in winter rainfall was found to be statistically significant (95% confidence) at Kulgam and Handwara, whereas none of the increasing trend in the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon season was significant. Srinagar and Handwara witnessed a decreasing (non-significant) trend in annual rainy days, whereas Kulgam experienced the opposite trend. All the stations experienced a decreasing trend in monsoon and winter rainy days. Qazigund and Kukarnag experienced decreasing annual rainfall, and Srinagar showed increasing annual rainfall during the period 1962–2002. Pre-monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall decreased at all three stations. None of the increasing/decreasing trends were found to be significant. Annual, pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter rainfall increased (non-significant) whereas monsoon rainfall decreased (non-significant), at Srinagar during the last century.