Abstract
BackgroundClimate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change relative to their surroundings, are of increasing interest as natural resource managers seek to prioritize climate adaptation actions. However, evidence that refugia buffer the effects of anthropogenic climate change is largely missing.MethodsFocusing on the climate-sensitive Belding’s ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi), we predicted that highly connected Sierra Nevada meadows that had warmed less or shown less precipitation change over the last century would have greater population persistence, as measured by short-term occupancy, fewer extirpations over the twentieth century, and long-term persistence measured through genetic diversity.ResultsAcross California, U. beldingi were more likely to persist over the last century in meadows with high connectivity that were defined as refugial based on a suite of temperature and precipitation factors. In Yosemite National Park, highly connected refugial meadows were more likely to be occupied by U. beldingi. More broadly, populations inhabiting Sierra Nevada meadows with colder mean winter temperatures had higher values of allelic richness at microsatellite loci, consistent with higher population persistence in temperature-buffered sites. Furthermore, both allelic richness and gene flow were higher in meadows that had higher landscape connectivity, indicating the importance of metapopulation processes. Conversely, anthropogenic refugia, sites where populations appeared to persist due to food or water supplementation, had lower connectivity, genetic diversity, and gene flow, and thus might act as ecological traps. This study provides evidence that validates the climate change refugia concept in a contemporary context and illustrates how to integrate field observations and genetic analyses to test the effectiveness of climate change refugia and connectivity.ConclusionsClimate change refugia will be important for conserving populations as well as genetic diversity and evolutionary potential. Our study shows that in-depth modeling paired with rigorous fieldwork can identify functioning climate change refugia for conservation.
Highlights
Climate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change relative to their surroundings, are of increasing interest as natural resource managers seek to prioritize climate adaptation actions
We examined the pattern of genetic diversity for 11 populations (n = 124) of U. beldingi in the central Sierra Nevada including Yosemite National Park and the western Great Basin using linear regressions to test for correlations between allelic richness and minimal change in climate factors, as well as mean minimum temperature in the recent period
Climate change refugia will be important for conserving populations as well as genetic diversity and evolutionary potential [43]
Summary
Areas buffered from climate change relative to their surroundings, are of increasing interest as natural resource managers seek to prioritize climate adaptation actions. Attention on climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources [1], has increased as scientists attempt to explain anomalies in the expected. Ecologically important as key prey items and ecosystem engineers, U. beldingi in California have recently undergone large climate-related declines in occupancy, except where “anthropogenic refugia” were created by supplements with water or food through high human activity (such as campgrounds and municipal parks) [16]. We predicted that populations located in highly connected refugial meadows identified by Maher et al [4] on the basis of temperature and precipitation changes over the twentieth century would have higher contemporary occupancy, persistence, and, as a result, higher genetic diversity than sites that were not identified as climate change refugia. Our results validate the use of climate refugia as a key aspect of change climate adaptation
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