Abstract
Climate change would significantly affect the temporal pattern and amount of annual precipitation at the regional level, which in turn would affect the regional water resources and future water availability. The Peace Region is a critical region for northern British Columbia’s social, environmental, and economic development, due to its potential in various land use activities. This study investigated the impacts of future climate change induced precipitation on water resources under the A2 and B1 greenhouse gas emission scenarios for 2020–2040 in a study area along the main river of the Kiskatinaw River watershed in the Peace Region as a case study using the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) modeling system. The simulation results showed that climate change induced precipitation changes significantly affect monthly, seasonal and annual stream flows. With respect to the mean annual stream flow of the reference period (2000–2011), the mean annual stream flow from 2020 to 2040 under the A2 and B1 scenarios is expected to increase by 15.5% and 12.1%, respectively, due to the increased precipitation (on average 5.5% in the A2 and 3.5% in the B1 scenarios) and temperature (on average 0.76 °C in the A2 and 0.57 °C in the B1 scenarios) predicted, with respect to that under the reference period. From the seasonal point of view, the mean seasonal stream flow during winter, spring, summer and fall from 2020 to 2040 under the A2 scenario is expected to increase by 10%, 16%, 11%, and 11%, respectively. On the other hand, under the B1 scenario these numbers are 6%, 15%, 6%, and 8%, respectively. Increased precipitation also resulted in increased groundwater discharge and surface runoff. The obtained results from this study will provide valuable information for the study area in the long-term period for seasonal and annual water extractions from the river and allocation to the stakeholders for future water supply, and help develop a regional water resources management plan for climate change induced precipitation changes.
Highlights
Precipitation is the major component of the hydrologic cycle, and provides most of the fresh water on Earth [1]
In western and northern Europe (e.g., United Kingdom, Belgium, Denmark) more precipitation occurs during winter as rainfall [2,3]; in northeastern Nigeria major precipitation occurs as rainfall during summer [4]; in southwestern Montana, USA, major precipitation occurs as snow during winter [5]; in southern India, precipitation occurs mainly as rainfall, and the majority occurs during summer due to monsoon [6]; in the Peace Region of northeastern British Columbia (BC), Canada, major precipitation occurs during summer as rainfall [7]; in lower mainland of southwestern BC, Canada, major precipitation occurs during winter as rainfall [8]
The changes in precipitation due to climate change of the A2 and B1 greenhouse gases (GHG) emission scenarios for 2020–2040, and its effects on water resources were evaluated in a study area along the main river of the Kiskatinaw River Watershed (KRW) in the Peace Region of BC, Canada
Summary
Precipitation is the major component of the hydrologic cycle, and provides most of the fresh water on Earth [1]. The type and temporal pattern of annual precipitation varies from region to region. Climate change influences the change in the pattern of annual precipitation, which in turn affects the water resources system at the regional scale [9,10]. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reported that the global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) will continue to increase in the following decades and resulting in continuing climate change at the regional level [11]. It is necessary to forecast climate change induced precipitation effects on water resources (i.e., stream flow and groundwater discharge) for developing future water resources management plan at regional level
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
