Assessing the Value of a Human Life in Heat-Related Mortality: Lessons from COVID-19 in Belgium

Abstract

This study evaluates the cost of heat-related mortality using economic impacts and mortality data from the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium as a proxy. By examining the economic loss measured by gross domestic product (GDP) decline and excess mortality during the first COVID-19 wave (March–June 2020), a new estimate for avoided heat-related mortality is derived. The results show that the cost per avoided death is EUR 377,000 ± EUR 222,000, significantly lower than numerical values of the commonly used Value of a Statistical Life (VSL). However, when this cost is divided by the expected remaining (eight) life years at the age of death, the resulting monetary value for a saved life year, in a EUR 47,000 ± EUR 28,000 range, aligns well with commonly used values for the Value of a Life Year (VOLY). Thus, the present study contributes to the ongoing debate on the most appropriate methods for valuing human life in the context of heat-related mortality. By comparing our results with both VSL and VOLY, we underscore the limitations of VSL in the context of heat-related mortality and advocate for VOLY as a more accurate and contextually relevant metric. These findings may offer useful insights for policymakers in evaluating and prioritizing investments in heat-related mortality-prevention strategies.