Abstract
Simple SummaryHelicoverpa zea is one of the most destructive lepidopteran agricultural pests in the world and can disperse long distances both with and without human transportation. It is listed in the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People’s Republic of China but has not yet been reported in China. On the basis of 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, we predicted the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The results showed that the PGDs of H. zea under the current climate are large in China. Future climate changes under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 for both the 2030s and 2050s will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea. Helicoverpa zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to the host plants of H. zea and containers harboring this pest.Helicoverpa zea, a well-documented and endemic pest throughout most of the Americas, affecting more than 100 species of host plants. It is a quarantine pest according to the Asia and Pacific Plant Protection Commission (APPPC) and the catalog of quarantine pests for plants imported to the People’s Republic of China. Based on 1781 global distribution records of H. zea and eight bioclimatic variables, the potential geographical distributions (PGDs) of H. zea were predicted by using a calibrated MaxEnt model. The contribution rate of bioclimatic variables and the jackknife method were integrated to assess the significant variables governing the PGDs. The response curves of bioclimatic variables were quantitatively determined to predict the PGDs of H. zea under climate change. The results showed that: (1) four out of the eight variables contributed the most to the model performance, namely, mean diurnal range (bio2), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17) and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18); (2) PGDs of H. zea under the current climate covered 418.15 × 104 km2, and were large in China; and (3) future climate change will facilitate the expansion of PGDs for H. zea under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) 1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in both the 2030s and 2050s. The conversion of unsuitable to low suitability habitat and moderately to high suitability habitat increased by 8.43% and 2.35%, respectively. From the present day to the 2030s, under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the centroid of the suitable habitats of H. zea showed a general tendency to move eastward; from 2030s to the 2050s, under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, it moved southward, and it moved slightly northward under SSP2-4.5. According to bioclimatic conditions, H. zea has a high capacity for colonization by introduced individuals in China. Customs ports should pay attention to host plants and containers of H. zea and should exchange information to strengthen plant quarantine and pest monitoring, thus enhancing target management.
Highlights
With the increasing number of non-native species and global trade integration development, global biological invasions are considered to be one of the important factors contributing to the decline of biodiversity and loss of ecosystem functions [1,2,3]
Distribution data of H. zea and related environmental data were used to identify the potential geographic distributions (PGDs) of H. zea in China based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, and we aimed to investigate the following issues: (1) the relationship between the PGDs of H. zea and environmental variables; (2) the PGDs of H. zea in China under the current climate; and (3) changes in the PGDs of H. zea in China under climate change, and the shifting trend of PGDs of H. zea
The MaxEnt model based on optimized parameters for predicting suitable habitats of invasive alien species (IAS) can yield more accurate results than other approaches
Summary
With the increasing number of non-native species and global trade integration development, global biological invasions are considered to be one of the important factors contributing to the decline of biodiversity and loss of ecosystem functions [1,2,3]. Distribution data of H. zea and related environmental data were used to identify the PGDs of H. zea in China based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, and we aimed to investigate the following issues: (1) the relationship between the PGDs of H. zea and environmental variables; (2) the PGDs of H. zea in China under the current climate; and (3) changes in the PGDs of H. zea in China under climate change, and the shifting trend of PGDs of H. zea. Based on the above results, the dynamic characteristics and the significant environmental variables limiting the PGDs of H. zea in Insects 2022, 13, 79 were used to identify the PGDs of H. zea in China based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, and we aimed to investigate the following issues: (1) the relationship between the PGDs of H. zea and environmental variables; (2) the PGDs of H. zea in China under the current climate; and (3) changes in the PGDs of H. zea in China under climate change, and the shifting trend of PGDs of H. zea.
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