Climate Change in the Hydrometeorological Parameters of the Black and Azov Seas (1980\u20132020)

A I Ginzburg,I V Serykh,A G Kostianoy,S A Lebedev

doi:10.1134/s0001437021060060

Abstract

To study the nature of climate change in the hydrometeorological parameters of the Black and Azov Seas—surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST), ice cover, and sea level—under conditions of ongoing global warming, we used reanalyses and remote sensing data, as well as information from known publications of recent years. It was found that against an increase in SAT over the Black–Azov Sea region (+0.053°C/year in 1980–2020) and SST of the Black Sea (+0.052°C/year in 1982–2020), the values of these parameters in the 2000s differ significantly from those in the 1980s–1990s: the maximum average monthly summer and minimum average monthly winter temperatures have increased, as well as the number of mild winters. The average annual SST of the Black Sea, which practically did not exceed 15°C in the 1980s–early 1990s, has exceeded 16°C in most cases since 2010 (maximum 16.71°C in 2018). In the 2010s, the average monthly winter minima, with the exception of the winters of 2011/2012 and 2016/2017, did not fall below 8°С. A consequence of the increase in winter temperatures was a decrease in the ice concentration in the Sea of Azov (the trend of the mean monthly concentration is –1.2%/10 years). From about 2004–2010 in the Black Sea and since 2004 in the Sea of Azov, the tendency towards increase in their levels (on average) has been replaced by a slight decrease, so that the average positive trends for the period 1993–2020 (+0.32 ± 0.16 cm/year in the Black Sea and +0.21 ± 0.05 cm/year in the Sea of Azov) were approximately 2.5 times less than in 1993–2012. The reason for this decrease in levels (on average) in the last 10–15 years was apparently a decrease in the incoming part of the freshwater balance of both seas, which is indirectly confirmed by the observed increase in salinity of their waters.

Highlights

The semienclosed Black and Azov Seas, connected by the Kerch Strait and the system of Turkish straits with the Mediterranean Sea and through the Strait of Gibraltar with the Atlantic Ocean, are characterized by significant interannual variability of their hydrometeorological parameters
In this study, the surface air temperature (SAT) trend was estimated over the Black Sea–Sea of Azov region as a whole (40°–48° N and 27°–42° E)
The linear positive SAT trend for this period was +0.053°C/year. This estimate agrees well with measurements at the Gelendzhik hydrometeorological station (HMS): from 1987 to 2017, the SAT trend was +0.051°C/year, while for 82 years, from 1935 to 2017, the growth in SAT occurred at a three times lower rate of +0.017 ±

Summary

Introduction

The semienclosed Black and Azov Seas, connected by the Kerch Strait and the system of Turkish straits with the Mediterranean Sea and through the Strait of Gibraltar with the Atlantic Ocean, are characterized by significant interannual variability of their hydrometeorological parameters. The important national economic and military-strategic importance of these southern seas of Russia, in particular, problems of ecology, tourism, fishing, coastal infrastructure, and shipping, make, taking into account this variability, it extremely important to continuously monitor such hydrometeorological parameters for these seas as the water and air temperatures, ice cover (area covered by ice of any concentration, as a percentage of the total sea area), sea level, and their determining factors. The long-term variability of these hydrometeorological parameters in different time periods has the focus of many studies based on available field data and satellite measurements. 2012, is contained in [14] It is shown, in particular, that in 1982–2009, the average annual surface temperature (SST) of the Black Sea as a whole, according to satellite data, increased at an average rate of +0.06°C/year, while over the longer time interval from 1938 to 2009, the trend of the average annual.

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