Climate change impacts on wind power generation for the Italian peninsula

Abstract

Wind energy is one of the key renewable resources contributing to climate change mitigation policies in national and international energy transition strategies. However, climate change itself can affect the availability of wind resources, due to possible future changes in large-scale circulation pattern. This study aims to understand whether how and to what extent current and future climate change is affecting wind producibility in Italy. In this analysis, the 10 m wind speed from Euro-CORDEX regional climate models was bias-corrected using MERIDA meteorological reanalysis and the wind producibility is calculated, using a reference turbine chosen among the most commonly installed in Italian wind farms. The changes in the availability of wind resources from the reference period 1986–2005 for the short (2021–2050), medium (2051–2080), and long term (2071–2100) are analyzed, considering both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results show a prevalently weak and not statistically significant climate signal for the RCP 4.5 scenario, while a more pronounced and significant signal is highlighted for the RCP 8.5 scenario in the medium and long term, indicating a decrease in wind producibility. Specifically, the conclusions suggest that future planning of wind producibility should mainly focus in some specific areas of the eastern Italian coast and in the south-east Italian regions, mostly in the off-shore areas. In these regions, indeed, the RCP 8.5 scenario shows the lowest decrease in the overall annual producibility, while, for the RCP 4.5 scenario, the medium and the long term foresee a slight increase in wind producibility at the annual level, while, in the short term, an increasing trend is observed mostly in the spring season.