Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review

Abstract

Expansion of wind energy installed capacity is poised to play a key role in climate change mitigation. However, wind energy is also susceptible to global climate change. Some changes associated with climate evolution will likely benefit the wind energy industry while other changes may negatively impact wind energy developments, with such ‘gains and losses’ depending on the region under consideration. Herein we review possible mechanisms by which global climate variability and change may influence the wind energy resource and operating conditions, summarize some of the tools that are being employed to quantify these effects and the sources of uncertainty in making such projections, and discuss results of studies conducted to date. We present illustrative examples of research from northern Europe. Climate change analyses conducted for this region, which has shown considerable penetration of wind energy, imply that in the near-term (i.e. to the middle of the current century) natural variability exceeds the climate change signal in the wind energy resource and extreme wind speeds, but there will likely be a decline in icing frequency and sea ice both of which will tend to benefit the wind energy industry. By the end of the twenty-first century there is evidence for small magnitude changes in the wind resource (though the sign of the change remains uncertain), for increases in extreme wind speeds, and continued declines in sea ice and icing frequencies. Thus the current state-of-the-art suggests no detectable change in the wind resource or other external conditions that could jeopardize the continued exploitation of wind energy in northern Europe, though further research is needed to provide greater confidence in these projections.