Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

Robert H Beach,Bruce A Mccarl,Sara Ohrel,Benjamin Deangelo,Jeremy Martinich,Allison Crimmins,James Mcfarland,Kenneth Strzepek,Allison Thomson,Yongxia Cai,Brent Boehlert,Jefferson Cole,Russell Jones,Xuesong Zhang

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004

Abstract

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015–2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

Highlights

Agricultural and forestry production are highly sensitive to climate conditions
Greater yield benefits of stabilization in the Southern US are consistent with expectations and with the results of our Reference scenario, which indicate that the Southern US would experience some of the most negative effects on yields with unabated climate change
Our analytical approach of a combination of climate models, a crop process model, a dynamic vegetation model, and an economic model of the forest and agricultural sectors was applied to a Reference and Policy case, enabling us to conduct an integrated assessment of the potential benefits of climate stabilization on US forests and agriculture

Summary

Introduction

Climate change is projected to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature and precipitation as well as the frequency and severity of extreme events such as storms, flooding, drought, and wildfires as well as pest and disease outbreaks (IPCC 2013, 2014) These changes are all likely to affect future agriculture and forestry productivity, influencing the global supply of agricultural and forestry commodities. Given the likelihood that future climate conditions will be outside the range of recent historical experience, landowners will likely find it more difficult to accurately assess the future risks they are facing and to successfully adapt by such means as land use change, crop switching, or modifying production practices As a result, it may become more difficult for landowners to manage risk and domestic and global market volatility for agricultural and forest product commodities will likely increase (Wheeler and von Braun 2013)

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Results

Conclusion