Climate change impacts on tree crop suitability in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Cultivation of tree crops such as coconut, oil palm and rubber are an important source of income in Southeast Asia, both for the national economies and for the local population. Climate change has the potential to drastically affect the suitability for growing these crops, but until now the impacts thereof on existing production areas have not been considered. This study combines climate change projections with data on crop cultivation to analyze how suitability for coconut, oil palm and rubber will change under different scenarios in Southeast Asia. We find that projected increases in total precipitation and longer dry periods in the insular part of Southeast Asia will result in 127,000 ha of current coconut and 1.17 Mha of current oil palm area will no longer be highly suitable under the most severe climate scenario. Conversely, increasing temperature in the mainland part of the region will cause 97,000 ha of current rubber cultivation area to become highly suitable. Increasing temperatures will also allow for potential expansion of rubber and coconut cultivation in the northern mainland part of the region, while the potential highly suitable area for oil palm cultivation will decrease. These changes in crop suitability may result in impacts on local farmers, including fall in yields and displacement of cultivation areas. This, in turn, may add pressure to biodiversity conservation in the region since areas that become highly suitable are disproportionally located within Key Biodiversity Areas.