Abstract
This study examines the hydrological sensitivity of an agroforested catchment to changes in temperature and precipitation. A physically based hydrological model was created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform to simulate the hydrological processes over 23 years in the Acadie River Catchment in southern Québec. The observed air temperature and precipitation were perturbed linearly based on existing climate change projections, with warming of up to 8 °C and an increase in total precipitation up to 20%. The results show that warming causes a decrease in blowing snow transport and sublimation losses from blowing snow, canopy-intercepted snowfall and the snowpack. Decreasing blowing snow transport leads to reduced spatial variability in peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and a more synchronized snow cover depletion across the catchment. A 20% increase in precipitation is not sufficient to counteract the decline in annual peak SWE caused by a 1 °C warming. On the other hand, peak spring streamflow increases by 7% and occurs 20 days earlier with a 1 °C warming and a 20% increase in precipitation. However, when warming exceeds 1.5 °C, the catchment becomes more rainfall dominated and the peak flow and its timing follows the rainfall rather than snowmelt regime. Results from this study can be used for sustainable farming development and planning in regions with hydroclimatic characteristics similar to the Acadie River Catchment, where climate change may have a significant impact on the dominating hydrological processes.
Highlights
Ongoing and future changes in air temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation can have large impacts on the hydrological cycle, such as changes to the quantity, seasonality and timing of streamflow [1,2,3,4,5]
This study aims to answer the following questions: (1) what are the physical processes and feedback mechanisms driving the hydrological response of the catchment to warming and increasing precipitation associated with climate change?
snow water equivalent (SWE) is mostly underestimated during low snowpack years, which is likely due to uncertainties in the gridded precipitation dataset, parameters selections and limitations of the snow model (SNOBAL) [80], which was originally developed to simulate deep snowpacks
Summary
Ongoing and future changes in air temperature and the amount and timing of precipitation can have large impacts on the hydrological cycle, such as changes to the quantity, seasonality and timing of streamflow [1,2,3,4,5] These changes are likely to vary regionally depending on current and future regional climate conditions and catchment characteristics. Changes to snow accumulation and melt are expected to modify the timing, duration and magnitude of streamflow in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere [15], which could redefine flooding risks as well as hydrological services, such as water supply from snowmelt runoff. Snow is typically transported from sparsely vegetated and exposed terrains to densely vegetated areas and/or topographic depressions [22,23]
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