Abstract
Climate change is affecting the growth, phenology, and distribution of species across northeastern United States. In response to these changes, some species have been adversely impacted while others have benefited. One species that has benefited from climate change, historically and in response to experimental treatments, is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a widely distributed annual weed and a leading cause of hay fever in North America. To better understand how climate change may affect the distribution of common ragweed, we built a maximum entropy (Maxent) predictive model using climate and bioclimatic data and over 700 observations across the eastern U.S. Our model performed well with an AUC score of 0.765 using four uncorrelated variables, including precipitation seasonality, mean diurnal temperature range, August precipitation, and January maximum temperature. After building and testing our model, we then projected potential future common ragweed distribution using a suite of 13 global climate models (GCMs) under two future greenhouse gas scenarios for mid and late-century. In addition to providing georeferenced hot spots of potential future expansion, we also provide a metric of confidence by evaluating the number of GCMs that agree. We show a substantial contraction of common ragweed in central Florida, southern Appalachian Mountains, and northeastern Virginia and areas of potential expansion at the northern margins of its current distribution, notably in northeastern U.S. However, the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s, implying that common ragweed may be sensitive to climatic variability. Although other factors and modeling approaches should be explored, we offer preliminary insight into where common ragweed might be a new concern in the future. Due to the health impacts of ragweed, local weed control boards may be well advised to monitor areas of expansion and potentially increase eradication efforts.
Highlights
Average annual temperature has increased by 1.1 ̊C (2 ̊F) and precipitation has increased by more than 10% over the last century in the Northeast U.S [1]
One plant species that may expand its range in the Northeast U.S is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., Asteraceae), a widely distributed annual weed whose pollen is the leading cause of hay fever and a major trigger of asthma [8,9]
Our results show that common ragweed is projected to have substantially more suitable climate space in the future across the eastern U.S the vast majority of this increase is projected to occur by mid-century and may be moderated somewhat by the 2070s
Summary
Average annual temperature has increased by 1.1 ̊C (2 ̊F) and precipitation has increased by more than 10% over the last century in the Northeast U.S [1]. One plant species that may expand its range in the Northeast U.S is common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., Asteraceae), a widely distributed annual weed whose pollen is the leading cause of hay fever and a major trigger of asthma [8,9]. Common ragweed has strong competitive growth on frequently disturbed soils [10] and responds positively to elevated CO2, which can dramatically increase its growth, reproduction, and pollen output [11,12,13,14]. Ragweed generally requires full or abundant sun for germination [15] and usually does not grow under full tree canopy. It is usually found in non-forested habitats such as roadsides, abandoned fields, and agricultural croplands
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
