Abstract
Many studies have been conducted on determining the effect of climate change on the precipitation. The increasing of temperature has led to increase of evaporation rate, rainfall intensity, sea water level and so forth. These changes will lead to greater disaster such as increase of flood magnitude, flood event, drought intensity and prolong the drought period. The main objective of this study is to analyze the monthly rainfall pattern from 1984 to 1993 for the Teluk Intan Basin. Five stations of rainfall data were retrieved from DID. The rainfall distribution pattern was calculated by using two types of probability distributions known as Log-Pearson type-III and Gumbel using California’s method. Later, Chi-square test of goodness of fit was applied to validate the results. Based on the calculated results, out of the five stations used in this study, only three stations shows are fitted to apply the mentioned method which is Mengkuang River St, Labu Kubong St and Telok Intan station. Maximum total rainfall for ten years period occurs at Pt. IV Sg. Manik St as the value is 5570.5 mm, meanwhile minimum total rainfall occurs at Pt. I Sg. Manik St as the value is 1462.5 mm. For the average temperature, year 1990 gives the maximum value that is 29.18°C, while year 1986 gives the minimum value that is 28.79°C. The chi-square test was performed to determine which method is fitted to use as statistical analyses. Lastly, correlation test was tested to determine the correlation between rainfall and temperature. Based on the correlation result, it clearly shows a weak correlation between rainfall and temperature. For Telok Intan St the correlation value is 0.17, Pt. I Sg. Manik St is 0.28, Mengkuang River St is 0.17, Pt. IV Sg. Manik St is 0.4, and lastly Labu Kubong St gives the smallest correlation value that is 0.07. As a conclusion, the distributions of rainfall pattern in this area are not really affected by the temperature. However, the temperature distribution still will affect the rainfall distribution in a longer period.
Highlights
In recent years, climate change is one of the main issues that attracted the attention of researchers around the world
The data consist of monthly maximum daily rainfall records covering the period from January 1984 to December 1993 for the five locations at Teluk Intan (Teluk Intan, Labu Kubong, Stage I Sungai Manik, Stage IV Sungai Manik dan Sungai Mengkuang)
Rainfall and temperature seems not correlated at all based on the negative value for every five rainfall station
Summary
Climate change is one of the main issues that attracted the attention of researchers around the world. Measured temperature records of the earth have only been available since 1861 [8]. The earth’s temperature before the instrumental period has been reconstructed using different indirect tools and methods like tree rings, corals, ice sheets, ice cores, borehole measurements, glaciers, ancient sediments and sea level changes etc [8]. The observed temperature record from 1861 to 2000 shows that the earth’s temperature is increasing and most of the warming occurred during the second half of the twentieth century [8]. Increasing temperatures generally result in an increase in the water holding capacity of the atmosphere that leads to change in precipitation pattern and increase in atmospheric moisture [8]. Global land precipitation has increased by 2% since the beginning of the 20th century, but largely varied in space and time. Despite the irregularity in the trends of precipitation in the last century, the annual average precipitation in mid and high latitudes was increasing while that in tropics and sub-tropics was decreasing [8]
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