Climate change impacts on Mediterranean fisheries: A sensitivity and vulnerability analysis for main commercial species

Abstract

Climate-induced projected range shifts of exploited species would lead to a redistribution of stocks. Evaluating the combined ecological and socio-economic consequences of projected changes in Mediterranean fisheries due to climate change has remained largely unexplored. This study aims to identify the most affected stocks by climate change and more vulnerable countries in the region. Thus, we calculated the species specific sensitivity per country for 17 harvested species of significant importance. Then, we evaluated the vulnerability index for Mediterranean countries. Results show that temperate-cold species, i.e., Sprattus sprattus and Solea solea appear the most sensitive species. In contrast, temperate-warm species like the bogue showed the lowest sensitivity. Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya are the most vulnerable countries due to their comparatively high exposure to global warming and low adaptive capacity. At the same time, Slovenia, France, and Croatia have the lowest vulnerability because of their low exposure and sensitivity and remarkably high adaptive capacity. The southern Mediterranean countries would be the most vulnerable to climate-induced effects on marine fisheries. The region seriously needs adequate and adopted on-time adaptation and mitigation policies to lessen potential risks to harvested species and stocks and guarantee the contribution of fisheries to the economy and food security in the long-term.