Climate change impact on glacier lakes in Panjshir province of Afghanistan

Abstract

The upper portion of the ‎Panjshir River watershed consists of steep mountain ‎valleys in the Hindu Kush mountain range, which reaches over 6,000 meters above sea ‎level and remains snow covered throughout the year. The Glacier Lakes there pose a potential flood risk to the Panjshir valley. As the weather is warming ‎globally, the increasing temperatures accelerate the melting rate of the ‎glacier, causing the mountain ice caps to melt and create numerous lakes. Over the last decade, two of these lakes ruptured, leaving dozens of deaths, many hectares of land farm washed out, and hundreds of houses destroyed. This study looks at the potential impact of climate change on villagers in the province.‎ Hydro-‎‎meteorological data ‎(wind, temperature, precipitation, and runoff) from five meteorological stations over the last decade were analyzed with satellite imagery. Discharge data at the outlet of this sub-basin over ten years were also analyzed with remote sensing data for higher accuracy and validity.‎ Rising regional climate temperatures have resulted in faster snow and glacier melting, causing more discharge, high evapotranspiration, and higher ‎water demand. Although precipitation decreased between 2008 and 2018, ‎discharge increased from melting glaciers.‎ Satellite imagery reveals 234 lakes in the valley; ‎‎66 lakes have potential or high-potential risk to the six districts of this province, and Paryan district is at most risk.