Climate Change Impact on Flow Discharge of Kunhar River Catchment using Snowmelt Runoff Model

Abstract

Most of the runoff in Kunhar Catchment is generated from the snowmelt which makes it more sensitive to climate change. The Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM), a simple degree-day model, has been applied around the world under different climatic regions to evaluate the hydrological effects of climate change.The current study encompasses the use of Snowmelt-Runoff Model (SRM) to forecast stream flows in Kunhar river catchment depicting three varying climate change scenarios i.e. a) an increase in +2°C temperature b) an increase in +2°C temperature along with 20% increase in precipitation, and c) a 20% increase in precipitation. The study area was distributed with respect to varying altitude with 500 m elevation interval. Moderate resolution Imaging Satellite (MODIS) daily snow product MOD10A1 is used to map snow cover. SRM model was simulated and later climate change run was evaluated. SRM Model was calibrated for 2003 – 2004 and validated for 2005 – 2006 with an average coefficient of 0.93 R2 and average seasonal volume difference Dv of 1.46%. The stimulated results for scenario “b” show an increase of flow discharge by 27%. Whereas, there was 21% and 6% increment in discharge simulated for scenarios “a” and “c” respectively.