Climate change, heat stress and the analysis of its space-time variability in european metropolises

Abstract

Global warming is a pressing problem that necessitates immediate action. This phenomenon is particularly affecting the quality of life in larger cities due to population growth and human mobility. Understanding the space-time variability of the heat stress that various locations will face in the future is therefore crucial for us. Taking into account the aforementioned facts, the current study examined the evolution of the Hi heat stress index in four European capitals - Berlin, Madrid, Paris, and Rome - during the months of July, August, and September between 2008, 2012, and 2017. The European Space Agency (ESA) UrbClim climate model was used to collect environmental data. Furthermore, Local Climatic Zones (LCZ) classifications and land use/cover change (LULC) coverages were used to improve the evaluation and extrapolation of the results. According to the findings, the studied areas experienced significant increases in environmental temperatures and the heat stress index Hi between 2008 and 2017. The four cities' average increase is 0.31 °C per decade, with the southern cities experiencing greater intensity and the northern cities experiencing less intensity. When comparing the spatiotemporal variability of heat stress in different zones, the study discovered that areas with more impervious areas and fewer green areas are more vulnerable to potential increases in heat stress. As a result, future urban developments with more green areas can be able to create spaces that are more resistant to heat stress, improving people's quality of life.