Climate change effects and their interactions: An analysis aiming at policy implications

Abstract

In this study we provide a computerized graph structure for synthesizing and displaying the data on a region’s ecosystem-economic system. By applying Mathematica-based graph modeling we create a causal network of the synergistic impact mechanism among certain climate related factors. Our computational approach identifies a climate factor that affects most immediately or most strongly the others. Important factors are indicated through the use of graph theoretical tools. Our graph-based approach and its computational aspects allow for factor ranking(s) according to their importance to the network both numerically and visually, for certain settlement types. Our contribution provides quantitative estimates of impacts and adaptation potentials of five potential effects of climate change (migration, flooding-landslides-fire, air and water pollution, human health and energy-water-other resources) which play a substantial role at the synergistic impact mechanism. By using graph visualization techniques, the structure of the synergistic impact mechanism is self-evident. Specifically, graph layouts are created to detect i) the causal relationships of the synergistic mechanism under study ii) the most influential factor(s) in the synergistic mechanism and iii) classify the factor’s roles (based on the degree of their impact) within the coping mechanism. Highlighting graph elements let information for policy implications stand out.