Climate change drives spatial mismatch and threatens the biotic interactions of the Brazil nut

Abstract

AbstractAimClimate change and deforestation will redistribute biodiversity in the next century. Species‐specific differences in the response to these stressors will lead to distribution decoupling of interacting species. However, consequences for ecosystem services are poorly known. Here, we assess the potential effects of future distribution mismatch on a key ecosystem service mediated by seed dispersal and pollination interactions: the sustainable exploitation of Brazil nuts.LocationThe Amazon.Major taxa studiedWoody plants, medium‐sized mammals, and insects.Time periodPresent day, end of the 21st century.MethodsCombining ecological niche models to simulations of tree cover loss and dispersal constraints, we compare the forecasted distribution of the plant to that of its interacting fauna of pollinators and seed dispersers.ResultsOur projections indicate that climate change itself could have no or even slightly positive effects on the distribution of the Brazil nut tree, expected to increase by up to 6% by the year 2090. However, the pollinators of this tree were forecasted lose nearly 50% of their suitable distribution in the future, leading to an almost 80% reduction in co‐occurrence potential. In addition, local pollinator richness was predicted to diminish by 20%, with likely consequences for pollination redundancy and resilience to subsequent environment changes. Although range contractions were also forecasted for some seed dispersers in the future, the overall patterns of potential co‐occurrence between the Brazil nut tree and seed dispersers, as well as local richness of seed dispersers. were mostly unabated.Main conclusionsThe forecasted declines in pollinator diversity may reduce ecosystem functional redundancy and threaten the long‐term resilience of the services provided by Brazil nut trees. Such pervasive and indirect effects of climate change, often neglected and unaccounted for in most conservation assessments, may have cascading effects upon into economies and human well‐being worldwide.