Indirect impacts of coastal climate change and sea-level rise: the UK example

Abstract

Owing to globalization, the potential impacts of climate change/sea-level rise in one country/region are likely to affect and be felt elsewhere. Such indirect impacts could be significant but have received a limited analysis. This deficiency is addressed here using the indirect impacts on coastal infrastructure for the UK as an example. National opportunities and threats are identified. Potential indirect national threats include disruption of supply chains, security threats due to forced migration, a decline in national prestige, and impacts on the finance and insurance industries. Potential opportunities include export of world-leading coastal hazard and management expertise, and benefits to national prestige conferred by a strong response to climate change. Such opportunities and threats depend on several distinct dimensions of change, especially the magnitude of climate and socio-economic change, and the success/failure of appropriate responses. Promoting adaptation and climate mitigation is important to exploit the opportunities and address the threats. Adaptation should deal with more than the effects of climate change and link to the wider development agenda. These lessons are transferable to other developed countries and, indeed, many of the actions will be strengthened by collective action. Policy relevance National-level measures to address these indirect impacts will make a positive contribution to the global effort in addressing climate change (e.g. supporting emissions reductions). Countries should include the indirect effects of climate change in national assessments so that the national context and useful responses can be identified. Cooperation between nations is also important; countries must act together to more effectively address the direct and indirect effects of climate change (e.g. promoting a widespread adaptation response). International initiatives (such as the Belmont Forum initiative on Coastal Vulnerability) should be promoted and global environmental change research shared (e.g. within multilateral institutions).