Abstract
Cocoa is a plant with origins in northwestern South America with high relevance in the global economy. Evidence indicates that cocoa is sensitive to a dry climate, under which crop production is reduced. Projections for future climate change scenarios suggest a warmer and drier climate in the Amazon basin. In this paper, we quantify the potential effects in cocoa production due to its edaphoclimatic suitability changes to the Brazilian Amazon biome and account for regional differences in planning occupation territories. We modeled the suitability of cocoa’s geographical distribution using an ensemble of 10 correlative models that were run in the “biomod2” library and projected to two future climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) by 2050. Combining information on climate and soil suitability and installed infrastructure in the macro-regions of the Brazilian Amazon. We defined a zoning system to indicate how cocoa production may respond to climate change according to the current and future suitability model. Our results suggest that a reduction in precipitation and an increase in temperature may promote a reduction in the suitability of cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon biome. In addition of the areas suitable for cocoa plantation, we found a 37.05% and 73.15% decrease in the areas suitable for intensification and expansion zones under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, compared with the current scenario. We conclude that there may be a need to expand land to cocoa production in the future, or else it will be necessary to plant a cocoa variety resistant to new climatic conditions. Besides, we recommend procedures to combat illegal deforestation to prevent the most critical climate change scenarios from occurring.
Highlights
Agriculture is one of the human activities that is are most vulnerable to climate change [1]
We can include cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.), which is considered an essential crop in several tropical countries because of the supported income it provides many small farmers [6]; it is involved in a global chain of chocolate production
Concerning the importance of the variables for current cocoa distribution followed the order: mean diurnal range, mean temperature of the driest quarter, isothermality, precipitation of the driest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and precipitation seasonality.The soil suitability classification showed that the soil areas suitable for cocoa plantation represented approximately 17% of the Brazilian Amazon biome (S2 Fig)
Summary
Agriculture is one of the human activities that is are most vulnerable to climate change [1]. Climate change impacts on future cocoa production in the Brazilian Amazon. The reduction of food supply will increase food prices and food insecurity, especially in the world’s poorest regions [5]. In this context, we can include cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.), which is considered an essential crop in several tropical countries because of the supported income it provides many small farmers [6]; it is involved in a global chain of chocolate production. South America represents 12.49% of global cocoa production and its countries receive US$2.4 billion/year [7] through its exportation. It is possible to observe the importance of carrying out studies in order to identify how climate change will change the future spatial configuration of cocoa production in the region
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