Climate change, climatic extremes, and households’ food consumption in Bangladesh: A longitudinal data analysis

Abstract

Bangladesh, the poster child of human-induced climate change, bears the brunt of the consequences of extreme climatic events such as floods, droughts, cyclones, salinity, and sea-level rise (SLR). In addition, the frequency and intensity of these extreme climatic events are shooting upward. They jeopardize households’ cereal food consumption in areas where the outbreak and landfall of these events are moderate and severe. Using Bangladesh—the most climate-vulnerable country globally—as a case study, this study investigates whether extreme climatic events have a heterogeneous impact on each region's agriculture through households’ food consumption. Using three rounds of nationally representative longitudinal datasets and employing a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach, results confirm that cyclone and saline-prone areas of the country are more vulnerable, followed by drought and flood-affected areas of cereal food consumption. In the long run (2011–19), Model 1 (per household cereal food consumption) was significant at the 1% and 10% levels, respectively, in the cyclone and drought-prone areas, but for flood-prone areas, it was insignificant. Moreover, analysis considering base year whole sample as control also underpinned that climate variability and their correlates negatively impact households’ basic food consumption. In the upshots findings, therefore, the study recommends intensifying agricultural research through robust budget allocation, launching crop insurance scheme and development of variety and technology sustaining in the saline, drought, and flood-prone areas along with high promotion for the adoption of the cultivars as well as strengthening of flood forecasting and early warning system.