Abstract
BackgroundThis paper presents the trend analysis of temperature and the effect of climate variation in the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The paper seeks to provide up-to-date information for the better management of climate change in the city. The analysis is based on the temperature difference in the city over two stations—Bole and Entoto. The overall purpose of this study is to investigate the possible trend of temperature variation as well as the effect of climate change in the study area.MethodThe Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and Sen's slope estimate were employed to find the nature of the temperature trend and significance level in the city.ResultsIt was found that the MK2/MK3 statistic (Z) value for minimum, maximum and average temperatures for Bole station are 6.21/5.99, 2.49/2.6, and 6.09/6.14 respectively. The positive Kendall's Z value shows an upward trend and implies an increasing trend over time. This indicates a significant increase in the trend at a 5% level of significance since the significance level (alpha) is greater than the computed p-value (0.05 > p-values (0.0001)). Whereas for Entoto station, the MK1 statistic (Z) results are 1.64 for minimum, while the MK2/MK3 static (Z) are 0.71/0.65 for the maximum, and 0.17/1.04 for average temperature, and this positive value shows an indicator of an increasing trend. However, the increase is not significant at the 5% significant level since the computed p-value is larger than the significant level (alpha = 0.05).ConclusionsThere is a tendency of temperature increments in Bole station. This could be due to the influence of climate change which can lead to weather extremes in the capital city. Therefore, the study recommends that the variability of temperature needs further monitoring technique, and there is a need to consider the increasing temperature trend to minimize its effects on human health.
Highlights
This paper presents the trend analysis of temperature and the effect of climate variation in the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
This could be due to the influence of climate change which can lead to weather extremes in the capital city
The study recommends that the variability of temperature needs further monitoring technique, and there is a need to consider the increasing temperature trend to minimize its effects on human health
Summary
This paper presents the trend analysis of temperature and the effect of climate variation in the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The intensity and frequency of extremes can be changed by climate change and the changes in climate extremes and their impacts on a variety of physical and biological systems examined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and their effects can contribute to global warming (IPCC 2007) Many factors such as the expansion of cities, and fast population growth rate along with migration from rural to urban areas pose a major challenge for city planners and contributes to increasing climate change (WHO and UNICEF 2006; Alemu and Dioha 2020). Using various General Circulation Models, Feyissa et al (2018) suggested future climatic changes and argued that a rise in temperature will exacerbate the urban heat highland effects in warm seasons and an increase in precipitation. The city temperature is mostly affected by anthropogenic activities along with climate change
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