Climate change and the distribution of two Ficus spp. in Bangladesh – predicting the spatial shifts

Abstract

Climate change acts as a major cause of species extinction by impacting the distribution and abundance of species. The impact of global climate change on ecosystems, especially at the species level, is already being observed across the world. Species distribution models can help to assess the potential effects of climate change on the spatial redistribution of species under different climate scenarios which is crucial for the management of habitat for endangered and critically endangered flora and fauna. Considering this, the present study aimed to predict the effect of climate change on two ecologically important species viz. Ficus benghalensis and Ficus hispida in Chattogram, Cox's Bazar and Bandarban Districts of Bangladesh using Maximum Entropy platform. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario, the model predicted the future suitable habitat by 2050 and 2070. The study predicted insignificant changes in terms of suitable habitat for the selected species under climate change scenarios indicating higher climate resilience of both Ficus benghalensis and Ficus hispida. The findings of the study may contribute to the policymaking regarding wildlife conservation and forest management as both these species are crucial for a range of fauna.