Climate Change and Renewable Energy Generation in Europe—Long-Term Impact Assessment on Solar and Wind Energy Using High-Resolution Future Climate Data and Considering Climate Uncertainties

Yuchen Yang,Kavan Javanroodi,Vahid M Nik

doi:10.3390/en15010302

Abstract

Climate change can strongly affect renewable energy production. The state of the art in projecting future renewable energy generation has focused on using regional climate prediction. However, regional climate prediction is characterized by inherent uncertainty due to the complexity of climate models. This work provides a comprehensive study to quantify the impact of climate uncertainties in projecting future renewable energy potential over five climate zones of Europe. Thirteen future climate scenarios, including five global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), are downscaled by the RCA4 regional climate model (RCM) over 90 years (2010–2099), divided into three 30-year periods. Solar and wind energy production is projected considering short-/long-term climate variations and uncertainties in seven representative cities (Narvik, Gothenburg, Munich, Antwerp, Salzburg, Valencia, and Athens). The results showed that the uncertainty caused by GCMs has the most substantial impact on projecting renewable energy generation. The variations due to GCM selection can become even larger than long-term climate change variations over time. Climate change uncertainties lead to over 23% and 45% projection differences for solar PV and wind energy potential, respectively. While the signal of climate change in solar radiation is weak between scenarios and over time, wind energy generation is affected by 25%.

Highlights

In the few decades, due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, the Earth’s climate will undergo considerable changes
The results showed that wind energy has a higher time variability than solar photovoltaic resources
This study provides an overview of future renewable generation considering solar and wind energy, studying their variations over time while multiple climate change scenarios are taken into account

Summary

Introduction

In the few decades, due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, the Earth’s climate will undergo considerable changes. Blommfield et al [14] adopted six EURO-CORDEX global/regional climate models, considering two climate forcing scenarios (or representative concentration pathways; RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to simulate the European power system by 2050 by modeling future renewable energy generation from wind and solar PV, as well as future energy demand. Other studies have found an increase in the overall potential of solar energy in Europe [32], especially in Southern Europe [33], and a decrease in Northern Europe [34] These contrasting results highlight some of the major challenges in predicting renewable generation and considering multiple future climate scenarios.

Climate Data

Wind and Solar Power

Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient

Results and Discussion

Long-Term Trends of Solar and Wind Energy Potential

Spearman’s Correlation Analysis