Abstract
SummaryThe Netherlands is facing a set of serious interrelated environmental and economic challenges, some of which are developing to crisis levels. These challenges also impinge significantly on agriculture. With respect to agriculture, Phosphate, Nitrate, water and climate impacts present key environmental challenges. The preservation of biodiversity, landscapes, animal welfare and the use of antibiotics are also elements which could be added to the list. Given the multiple challenges and the need to adhere to the legal commitments of several sustainability and climate objectives, an integrated approach to addressing these challenges is needed. In other words, there is a need for policy optimisation. As a follow‐up to their commitment to the Paris Agreement, the Dutch government took action by developing a national Climate Agreement (Klimaatakkoord). In order to provide more insights into the actions needed for the longer run (until 2050), a special study exploring different scenarios was issued, the main outcomes of which are presented in this article with a focus on the climate challenge. This study suggests that there is still considerable potential from both livestock farming and agricultural soils to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, even at the current scale of the agricultural sector.
Highlights
An important qualifier is that the reported ‘equivalent’ income statistic does not yet include an estimate of the adjusted government support to facilitate the climate transition, which could contribute to reducing the costs for farmers
Looking at the available CAP budget and rough calculations of the amount of money needed it is most likely that farmers will have to pay at least part of the bill themselves
With a strict interpretation of the climate targets, implying that at national level the emission space for greenhouse gases should not exceed carbon sequestration, significant herd reductions ranging from 20 per cent (Productivity stricter) to over 40 per cent (Nature inclusive stricter) are projected
Summary
High yields and high nutrient input levels have characterised Dutch agriculture for a long time. The Tinbergen framework emphasises the need for an integrated approach in the policy domain but this has to be mirrored in the analytical approach by bringing researchers from different disciplines together in collaborative working sessions employing a set of modelling tools The backbone of this approach was the combined use of a core economic model (AGMEMOD) and a core environmental model (INITIATOR); other complementary tools, including new innovative technologies were used to assess. In order to facilitate the debate on scenario-development, an interactive tool was developed, which could provide a quick first insight into the policy space The basis of this was a linear programming tool, bringing together all agricultural activities (e.g. crop, dairy beef, pigs, poultry) and the different legislative restrictions (e.g. Nitrate ceiling, Phosphate ceiling) and emission equations (e.g. climate) as constraints. As the technologies would have implications for the farming system, a discussion was initiated to consider the climate challenges in combination with different farming- system directions
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